I have been trying to think what else could be the problem I have here.
BarnabyBear's esp01, into which he uploaded a simple sketch, runs fine for me, on the same breadboard circuit that I was failing with. The esp01 I sent him, he was able to upload sketches to and they run for him. So nothing wrong with the esp01, breadboard circuit or breadboard adaptor.
I have tried 2 machines running linux with IDE 1.6.4 and 1.6.3. I have tried win7 but I cant upload with that. I also can't re-flash the AT command firmware with esptool.
Is it possible there is a problem with my usb serial adaptor? It worked 3 weeks ago, but could it have partially failed because I was overloading its 3.3V output? This feels like clutching at straws, but its 3 weeks since I last got a sketch to run on my esp01.