First, I'm still investigating, trying to rule out the many possible reasons for this, but since there seem to be a lot of potential factors to considerate, I'd like to see if someone here perhaps recognizes the symptoms.
So I updated my board and libraries. (All the time I was thinking that clicking on the popup message actually ment that I was updating the board and libraries, not knowing that I actually had to click "updatable", and then "update".)
Now, with the new version the OTA often fails at a random percentage. Often 1%, around 40% or 98%, but often at a random percentage. OTA always worked perfectly but now I find myself flashing over serial most of the time.
What I tried
- Going back to an older and stable version of my software.
- Erasing the flash with pytool
- Updating back to older versions available, but they all seem newer than what I used to have.
- Tried different upload parameters
Since I've not updated for such a long time, I'm not sure what the version was that I used before. Next thing I'm going to do is try to find my original downloads and do a reinstall with those.
Oh and by the way, I'm using Arduino IDE 1.6.7. My ESP's are ESP-07 with 1MB flash